Does my Enterprise have a long tail?

The Long tail can be represented by this diagram where the x and y axes can have many different associations.

Perhaps the best example is that of Amazon.com, in this example the x axis represents the topics of interest of the general public, and the y axis represents the number of people that are interested in each subject.

Highstreet retailers stick in the blue space - they stock only the popular items, because shelf space is expensive, so they need to maximize their revenue:shelf space ratio. Amazon is less constrained by shelf space, therefore they are able to operate in both the blue and red space, an capitalize on the niche (red) interest groups. Which whilst there is less potential custom per book, if you consider the area under the curve as potential revenue, the overall potential earnings of this sector is similar to the main stream blue section.

From an enterprise perspective I would propose that the x axis would represent an increasing number of the employees, whilst the y axis represents an increasing number of correct business decisions. Amongst other things I think that in this example the area under the curve represents the levels of business knowledge and experience that these groups have.

Controversial as this is, in general those individuals with the most business knowledge (the blue section) will be most likely to make the best decisions for the company, and will also be the least numerous, hence the hierarchical structure of most companies. The bulk of the employees don't have this experience and will therefore make less effective decisions in contrast. However the potential of the long tail effect in this sense is that if you can harness the AUC of the red section, essentially the collective experience of the majority of the organisation, you should find that you correct decisions can be made as effectively as those in those in the blue section.

Google are ahead of the game here - and have created an internal prediction market, where employees vote with their feet as to the outcomes of certain events (Google Blog). The outcome of this experiment was that the majority of employees made correct predictions on these outcomes - and therefore could have equally made the correct decisions about how to prepare for them.

The challenge is therefore to find a way to milk the collective intelligence of an organisation, and I firmly believe that this is one of the key ways in which E2 can make an impact.

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